Information Notes

SITUATION OVERVIEW:

The center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 77.3 West at 8:00 p.m. AST. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher wind gusts. Hurricane Melissa is a Category 4 storm (Saffir-Simpson scale), tracking slowly westward at near 5 mph (7 km/h) and is likely to turn to the north and northeast on Monday (October 27) and Tuesday (October 28). The centre of Hurricane Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica on Tuesday (October 28). Hurricane force winds extend 30 mi (45 km) from the centre and tropical storm force winds extend 205 mi (335 km), with a central pressure of 933 mb (27.55 in). The storm is forecast to cross the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday (October 29).

Information Notes

27 octobre 2025

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SITUATION OVERVIEW

The center of Tropical Storm (TS) Melissa was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 75.5 West at
8:00 p.m. AST. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher wind gusts, and gradual strengthening is expected over the next 24 hours. TS Melissa is a slow-moving storm, tracking north-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). The storm is likely to become a hurricane by Saturday 25 October and a major hurricane during Sunday 26 October.

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24 octobre 2025

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SITUATION OVERVIEW

The center of Tropical Storm (TS) Melissa was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 74.3 West at 5:00 p.m. AST (2100 UTC). Strong west-northwesterly shear is displacing the low-level center to the west of the main convection, limiting short-term development. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher wind gusts, and only minimal strengthening is expected over the next 24–36 hours. TS Melissa is a slow-moving storm, tracking west-northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). This slow forward speed is expected to continue, although confidence in the exact track remains low. Recent trends favor a slower, slightly more westward trajectory, while other models keep Melissa weaker and tracking closer to Jamaica and Haiti.

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23 octobre 2025

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SITUATION OVERVIEW:

As of 5:00 p.m. AST, today October 9, 2025, Tropical Storm Jerry remains a strongly sheared, poorly organized system with maximum winds near 55 kt (65 mph). The exposed, elongated center has the strongest winds on the eastern side. Jerry is moving west-northwest at 18 mph and is expected to pass near or over the northern Leeward Islands tonight into early Friday, then turn north late Friday and accelerate east to east-northeast early next week. Little strengthening is expected in the short term; slow intensification is possible late Friday through Sunday if shear eases, with limited strengthening thereafter as shear increases and waters cool.

Information Notes

10 octobre 2025

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SITUATION OVERVIEW:
Tropical Storm Jerry remains a sheared but solid system with an estimated central pressure near 999 mb, moving west-northwest at about 21 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed should begin Thursday night, followed by a northward motion Friday night into Saturday. On its forecast track, the center of TS Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and into Thursday night. While vertical wind shear is expected to persist, warm waters and a moist environment could still allow gradual strengthening, and Jerry could approach hurricane intensity by Friday if shear briefly relaxes.

Information Notes

9 octobre 2025

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